Using complex modelling techniques, scientists are able to predict the likely impact of climate change. Its not good news!
Likely impacts for Australia are:
- Increased frequency and severity of drought
- Reduced agricultural production, both crops and stock
- Greater frequency and severity of natural disasters such as bushfires, cyclones, hailstorms and floods
- Significant damage to our natural heritage, such as the Great Barrier Reef, Kakadu National Park
- Increased supply costs for basic services such as food, water, electricity.
- Sea level rise is expected to have major impact on infrastructure for coastal communities.
- As the number of very hot days (above 35°C) increases more people are likely to suffer from heat-related illnesses and death, and tropical diseases may become more common, with the elderly particularly vulnerable.
Climate change impact projections for Central Australia
- Central Australia is expected to become warmer with more hot days and less cold nights. The average number of days over 35°C in Alice Springs could grow from the current 89 to 96-125 days a year by 2030 and the number of cold days below 0°C could fall from 16 to 5-13 days.
- An increase in population and temperatures will likely see a rise in heat-related illness and death for those over 65, as well as vector-borne, water-borne and food-borne disease. A 10 percent increase in annual diarrhoeal admissions of Aboriginal children is likely by 2050 assuming no change in other circumstances.
- These health issues may increase pressure on medical and hospital services.
Growth in peak summer energy demand, due to air-conditioning use, may increase the risk of blackouts.
- A decline in annual rainfall and higher evaporation would likely reduce run-off to rivers and see a tendency for more frequent and severe droughts.
- Increases in extreme storm events are expected to cause more flash flooding, affect infrastructure including water, sewerage and stormwater, transport and communications and this may challenge emergency services.
- Centres dependent upon vulnerable industries such as tourism may be adversely affected during the warmer months.
